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Peso Ascends With Loonie as Hedge Funds Favor Nafta Currencies
By Chris Fournier and Ye Xie
April 5 (Bloomberg) — Mexicoās peso and Canadaās dollar are outperforming all other major currencies for the first time since at least 1998 and probably will keep rallying as the U.S. recovery lifts the rest of the worldās largest trading bloc.
The currencies gained 5.9 percent and 3.7 percent against the greenback in 2010ās opening months, rising in tandem with the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.ās Dollar Index for a second straight quarter for the first time in 11 years. Hedge funds and large speculators are the most bullish on the peso and Canadaās loonie since at least April 2008, before the credit crisis swamped Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. five months later, driving both down as much as 31 percent.
As U.S. stimulus efforts totaling as much as $8.2 trillion lift demand for Mexican engine parts from Alfa SAB in Monterrey and Canadian oil from Suncor Energy Inc. in Alberta, the strength of all three countriesā currencies is demonstrating the North American Free Trade Agreementās benefits. By contrast, ballooning deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal weighed on the currency of the worldās biggest monetary union as the euro fell 5.7 percent versus the dollar in the first quarter.
āWith U.S. growth resumption, we should see channels of support for the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso assert themselves,ā said Sacha Tihanyi, a strategist in Toronto at Bank of Nova Scotia, one of first quarterās three most-accurate forecasters for Canadaās currency in a Bloomberg survey.
āTrade unions do have an implicit advantage: Each constituent nation can still tailor monetary policy to their specific situation, given that their economic structures may be quite different, whereas a currency-union is bound by a constant policy,ā Tihanyi said.
Most Since ā77
The peso and the loonie topped all 13 other most traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg in January, February and March. The duo and the Dollar Index gained an average of 4.5 percent in the first quarter, the most since 1977. Last year, the greenback fell 14.9 percent in nine months against the euro, yen, pound, Swiss franc, loonie and Swedish krona, the Dollar Indexās fastest decline since 1987.
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Engine Parts for Ford cars and trucks 1928 to 1985